{"id":214000,"date":"2024-09-23T05:59:00","date_gmt":"2024-09-23T04:59:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/schoolsweek.co.uk\/?p=214000"},"modified":"2026-02-17T12:40:47","modified_gmt":"2026-02-17T12:40:47","slug":"falling-rolls-the-true-cost-of-declining-school-populations","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/schoolsweek.co.uk\/falling-rolls-the-true-cost-of-declining-school-populations\/","title":{"rendered":"The true cost of falling rolls"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

A declining child population is sparking community fallouts, job cuts and closures as schools struggle to adapt to falling rolls, Jessica Hill investigates\u2026<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Seven-year-old Kenzie was the third generation of her family to attend Churchill Gardens Primary School.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Her mum, Ellie, went to the school when the headteacher was Bob Brunning, a former Fleetwood Mac bass player.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And her grandmother recalled when girls had to play on the roof before a playground was built on an old bomb site.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But Kenzie was the last of her family to be taught there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

After more than a century filled with chattering children, the corridors of the school \u2013 just a short walk from the Houses of Parliament in Westminster \u2013 fell silent in July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite Ellie\u2019s campaign to rally the school\u2019s community against the closure, its pupils have moved to Millbank Academy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt won\u2019t be the same walking past and not hearing kids play. It\u2019s the end of an era,\u201d she says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The decline of Churchill Gardens wasn\u2019t down to reputation: just last year Ofsted rated it \u2018good\u2019 with \u2018outstanding\u2019 features.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Instead the primary is the victim of the falling rolls crisis, with declining birth rates now threatening the existence of many similar schools.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Not only is this causing heartache for communities, it also puts parents in conflict with schools, turns up the dial on competition for pupil recruitment, and has set councils on a collision course with academies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"falling
Churchill Gardens’ empty hall. Credit: Alison Jubon<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The scale of the falling rolls problem<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

London has been particularly hard hit by falling numbers as a population bulge from a 2000s baby boom exits the education system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The capital\u2019s birth rate also dropped 17 per cent between 2012 and 2021, equivalent to 23,225 fewer children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Last year almost 15 per cent of school places in the city were unfilled, a problem exacerbated by a post-Covid exodus of families taking advantage of flexible working.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Churchill Gardens was one of 17 state primaries to close in central London in the last year, Schools Week<\/em> analysis shows.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Academies<\/a>, the trust that ran Churchill Gardens and now has nine schools mostly in London, has places available in all its schools.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Phoenix Academy, in Hammersmith and Fulham, has a Progress 8 score that puts it in the country\u2019s top 2 per cent \u2013 but it\u2019s only two thirds full.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future\u2019s chief executive Lawrence Foley says: \u201cIt doesn\u2019t matter how good the school is \u2013 the housing isn\u2019t there for families to afford to live there.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It’s not just London, either. Education Policy Institute analysis suggests a 4.5 per cent fall in primary pupil numbers nationally between 2022-23 and 2027-28. London is predicted to face the biggest drop of 7.8 per cent, but the North East is close behind at 7.3 per cent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Last year, 11 local authorities had 20 per cent or more unfilled places. By 2025-26 this will rise to 33 \u2013 a fifth of all councils.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Secondary schools will be on a declining trajectory by 2028 too. Timo Hannay, managing director of education data resource SchoolDash, warns of \u201crapid reversals in enrollment trends they might not be anticipating\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Education Policy Institute <\/a>estimates falling rolls could mean schools get \u00a31 billion less in five years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And less income normally leads to cuts to balance the books.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kulvarn Atwal, principal of Uphall primary school in Ilford, East London, has cut five assistant heads and a parent support officer due to having 130 pupils on roll and capacity for 150.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He says: \u201cEven though they have a valuable role, you\u2019ve got to prioritise having a teacher in front of the children.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lambeth Council says it removed 975 places, equivalent to 33 classes from primaries across the borough between 2016 and 2025, but it\u2019s \u201cstill not enough to meet the financial challenge\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Foley believes \u201cnone\u201d of Westminster\u2019s primaries are \u201cfinancially viable\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"schools\"
Kulvarn Atwal, principal of Uphall and Highlands primary schools in Redbridge<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Haves and have n<\/strong>ots<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Schools in the poorest areas are more likely to be affected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the past four years, school occupancy rates fell 3.7 per cent in primary schools where more than a third of pupils were eligible for free school meals, compared to a 2.1 per cent drop in schools with fewer than a fifth, SchoolDash found.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Over half of Churchill Gardens\u2019 pupils were eligible for free school meals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Brighton and Hove, the two primaries that closed amid falling rolls had similar numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When there are objections from schools to admissions arrangements and proposed closures, the schools adjudicator makes the final call.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But Damian Jordan, headteacher of Fairlight Primary School in Brighton, says some heads fear recent adjudicator decisions favoured schools where \u201cparental power is strong\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These are usually in \u201cmore affluent areas\u201d with \u201cmore vocal parents\u201d, he says, adding: \u201cFalling rolls closures will be about the haves and have nots, which isn\u2019t something we’re comfortable with.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some recently closed schools also housed SEND support services.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Churchill Gardens had a speech and language resource base, which was moved to Pimlico Primary, while St Peter\u2019s Community Primary in Portslade, Brighton, which closed in July, had a \u2018hive unit\u2019 for older SEND children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Staff there posted a statement saying those children now had \u201cno suitable provision\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, small village schools \u2013 often anchors in their community \u2013 are more vulnerable because they cannot easily cut classes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

SchoolDash found that while large primaries\u2019 occupancy rates dropped 1.9 per cent between 2019 and 2023, it was 5.8 per cent in small primaries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

David Whitehead, CEO of Our Community MAT which has 10 primaries in Kent, says falling rolls mean he\u2019s had to slash class numbers in two of his \u201cremote village schools\u201d, Dymchurch and Lydd. But fluctuations in pupil movements, including families who \u201cturn up at the start of term having forgotten to apply for a place\u201d, make the number crunching trickier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, a report produced by the Queen Street Group, a collection of 35 trusts, said some schools rocked by falling rolls increased the teaching time of leadership teams to mitigate issues.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some MATs have also been subsidising primaries and sharing back-office functions with other trusts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Future
Lawrence Foley, chief executive of Future Academies<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Community and council tensions<\/strong> around falling rolls<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Foley admits there was a \u201clot of emotion\u201d over the Churchill Gardens closure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future was accused of contributing to its demise by opening a new free school, Pimlico Academy, a five-minute walk away in 2013.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trust bosses have also had to face accusations which they say are unfair of having a desire to save money over the needs of the children. Grace Rose, a reception teacher who no longer works for the trust, accused them of seeing Churchill Gardens \u201cas a business, rather than a school\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The trust said merging the schools was an educational decision, and suggesting otherwise is \u201ccompletely incorrect. We seek to use every available resource to enhance all the great things that happen in our classrooms by providing the broadest curriculum and best support.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Schools are also at the centre of a national policy flaw.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While local authorities have a legal duty to oversee place planning, they have no power to reduce numbers in academies which are their own admission authorities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bromley council recently objected to a decision by Harris Federation academy trust to downsize entry at its Orpington school next year from 180 to 120. The school said planning a curriculum for so many children \u201cwhen less than 100 are present\u201d was causing \u201csignificant financial challenges\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The council told the admissions adjudicator the reduction did \u201cnot align\u201d with its school place planning strategy, but its appeal was dismissed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, schools are choosing to academise to avoid closure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Diocese of Westminster told schools a \u201ckey reason\u201d for academising was to ensure \u201cclosure or amalgamation [decisions] would be solely\u201d in its hands.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The issue has also ended up in the courts. Islington Council lost a high court challenge last month against a Department for Education decision to academise a failing school.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The council had planned to close the school amid falling rolls. But the move meant it would instead be \u201cforced\u201d to close a \u201chigh-performing school nearby\u201d instead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Others are taking a more cooperative approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Haringey\u2019s secondaries are working closely with their council to avoid any having to shut, says Highgate Wood School headteacher Patrick Cozier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe view is that we all take a bit of a hit and share the pain of it. We\u2019re on the edge of a precipice and nobody knows how it will pan out.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Brighton and Hove Council is trying to put its maintained schools on a firmer financial footing by making itself a \u2018city of federated schools\u2019 \u2013 clusters of schools run by executive heads and joint governing bodies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Patrick Cozier, headteacher of Highgate Wood secondary school in London<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Power of marketing<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

With fewer pupils comes more competition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some schools are ramping up their marketing efforts to woo families, with glitzy promotional videos across social media.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Whitehall Park School, in Islington, \u201cfeels like a private school in its ethos, structure and facilities, but without the price tag,\u201d its website states.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The school also offers free yoga classes for parents and babies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s no longer enough for a school to provide \u201ca strong offer\u201d, they\u2019ve \u201cgot to get that message out to parents\u201d, says Mark Greatrex, chief executive of Bellevue Place Education Trust, which runs the school.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kyrstie Stubbs, principal of Boothroyd Primary Academy in Dewsbury, West Yorkshire, says one of her \u201cmost important roles\u201d now is to \u201cmoonlight as chief marketer and promoter\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

She advises schools add a \u201cvirtual tour\u201d to their website, create leaflets for prospective parents, and find out if any parents are marketing professionals who can help write press releases.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Schools are also expanding how they offer open days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Greatrex says many of his schools provide up to 15 to \u201cgive as much opportunity as possible for parents to see what it\u2019s like in the classroom\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Mark Greatrex, Bellevue Place Education Trust CEO<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

School space opportunities<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

If schools are shut, government approval is needed for using buildings for anything other than education.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Churchill Gardens will be used by Future as a head office and teacher training facility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But since locals have to travel across the borough for most mental health, financial and medical services, the trust is in discussion with Westminster City Council about hosting services there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some former schools have been repurposed into special needs units and inclusion hubs. With little money around for capital projects, spare space could be a silver lining of this crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Isle of Wight Council is converting a former studio school, closed in 2019 amid low numbers, to provide satellite provision for St George\u2019s, a nearby special school currently overwhelmed by demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But Cities of London & Westminster MP Rachel Blake is concerned about areas \u201closing whole school buildings that you can’t then re-establish as schools, creating pressure down the line for local authorities\u201d should numbers rise again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some schools with spare classrooms recoup some of the lost pupil revenue by hiring out space.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Whitehall Park hires rooms using facilities firm School Hire, which says numbers of schools on its books have doubled since 2021 to around 1,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And Ark Evelyn Grace secondary school in Lambeth, South London, which is less than half full, rents out much of its award winning Zaha Hadid designed building to community and sports groups. Ark made \u00a31.7 million from hiring facilities in 2022-23, compared to \u00a31.3 million the previous year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Kyrstie Stubbs, principal of Boothroyd Primary School<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Finding them young<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Schools are also reopening shuttered buildings as nurseries, partly to secure a steadier pipeline of children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

DfE data shows the number of primary schools with provision for under-fives increased nine per cent from 7,364 schools in 2018 to 8,008 in 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Labour has pledged to spend \u00a3140 million converting spare primary classrooms into 3,000 nurseries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Greenwood Academies Trust is looking to develop nursery provision where it doesn\u2019t exist \u2013 it took the \u201cbrave and financially risky\u201d decision to open a nursery at Ingoldmells Academy in Lincolnshire in 2022, partly to help plug falling rolls; the school last year had 100 on roll and capacity for 140.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But nurseries don\u2019t always help. Future\u2019s school nurseries are also struggling with surplus places.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And Whitehead is mulling using his empty classrooms in Kent as nurseries but is concerned what will happen if \u201cpupil numbers suddenly go up\u201d and space is needed again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Many sector leaders are calling on the government to maintain current school funding in cash terms. As numbers drop, this would increase funding per-pupil \u2013 without the government essentially putting in any more cash.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"falling
Empty classrooms at Churchill Gardens school when it closed Credit: Alison Jubon<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, former Churchill Gardens pupils are settling into life at the newly rebranded Millbank Gardens school (formerly Millbank Academy).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A new name was chosen so they didn\u2019t \u201cfeel like guests in someone else\u2019s home\u201d, says Foley.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Millbank\u2019s parents are pleased their kids aren\u2019t \u201crattling around in a big old half full building\u201d anymore.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But a Westminster council report highlights a \u201csustainability challenge for a number of small schools\u201d in the area.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Foley says: \u201cBluntly, there just aren\u2019t young families moving into central London anymore.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A declining child population is sparking community fallouts, job cuts and closures as schools struggle to adapt to falling rolls, Jessica Hill investigates\u2026 Seven-year-old Kenzie was the third generation of her family to attend Churchill Gardens Primary School. Her mum, Ellie, went to the school when the headteacher was Bob Brunning, a former Fleetwood Mac […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":311195,"featured_media":214012,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[32,3314,3358,3490],"post-theme":[2425],"class_list":["post-214000","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-profiles","tag-academies","tag-falling-rolls","tag-london-schools","tag-primaries","post-theme-school-funding"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t