{"id":241719,"date":"2026-02-16T05:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-02-16T05:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/schoolsweek.co.uk\/?p=241719"},"modified":"2026-03-19T16:52:30","modified_gmt":"2026-03-19T16:52:30","slug":"does-ofsteds-approach-to-achievement-data-add-up","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/schoolsweek.co.uk\/does-ofsteds-approach-to-achievement-data-add-up\/","title":{"rendered":"Does Ofsted&#8217;s approach to achievement data add up?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Ofsted\u2019s use of the national average when grading schools on achievement could be \u201cextremely unfair\u201d to those serving disadvantaged communities, leaders have warned.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The watchdog has made inclusion a key focus of its <a href=\"https:\/\/schoolsweek.co.uk\/ofsted-publishes-first-school-report-cards\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">reformed inspections<\/a>. But leaders say the framework could penalise schools with high levels of poverty, special educational needs and disabilities (SEND) or large numbers of children who speak English as an additional language.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The inspectorate stressed that inspectors consider a school\u2019s context, using both data and information gathered on site to \u201cform a holistic view of achievement\u201d. But to reach the \u2018expected standard\u2019, inspectors must be satisfied that \u201con the whole, pupils achieve well\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cTypically, this will be reflected in their attainment and progress in national tests and examinations, which are broadly in line with national averages, including for disadvantaged pupils,\u201d the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gov.uk\/government\/publications\/school-inspection-toolkit-operating-guide-and-information\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">grading toolkit<\/a> said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image alignright size-full is-resized\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"300\" src=\"https:\/\/schoolsweek.co.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Paul-Whiteman-inset-300px.jpg\" alt=\"Paul Whiteman\" class=\"wp-image-224017\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1;object-fit:cover;width:200px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/schoolsweek.co.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Paul-Whiteman-inset-300px.jpg 300w, https:\/\/schoolsweek.co.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Paul-Whiteman-inset-300px-244x244.jpg 244w, https:\/\/schoolsweek.co.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Paul-Whiteman-inset-300px-147x147.jpg 147w, https:\/\/schoolsweek.co.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Paul-Whiteman-inset-300px-54x54.jpg 54w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Paul Whiteman<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>NAHT general secretary Paul Whiteman said the union was \u201cvery concerned\u201d this could \u201cunfairly mark down\u201d schools with larger proportions of disadvantaged pupils, or those with SEND.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThese pupils may have low prior attainment, but nevertheless make considerable progress,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Averages also factor into grading decisions for \u2018attendance and behaviour\u2019, where to meet the expected standard, overall attendance must be \u201cbroadly in line with national averages or shows an improving trend over time\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Andy Jordan, inspection and accountability specialist at leaders\u2019 union ASCL, said Ofsted\u2019s secure fit model and use of averages risk making it harder for schools in more deprived areas to attain middle or top grades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He said the new model appears to be \u201cunfairly judging schools for issues that go beyond the front gates\u201d and called for Ofsted to \u201creconsider their methodology and ensure they avoid penalising schools that are doing good work in tough circumstances\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What does the data show?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Schools Week<\/em> analysis of the first 62 routine, non-voluntary inspections under the new system shows around one in three received \u2018needs attention\u2019 for achievement \u2013 more than any other evaluation area.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The 20 schools appear to be split across deprivation levels. Nine were \u201cabove\u201d or \u201cwell above\u201d average, four \u201cclose\u201d, and seven \u201cbelow\u201d or \u201cwell below\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The split was similar for free school meal eligibility, with five \u201cclose\u201d, eight \u201cabove\u201d or \u201cwell above\u201d, and seven \u201cbelow\u201d or \u201cwell below\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But the sample is still small, and leaders remain concerned.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Lack of \u2018wriggle room\u2019<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Richard Sheriff, CEO of Red Kite Learning Trust, has been through two inspections under the new framework. He fears a school\u2019s context \u201cis not influencing any of the grade\u201d and the approach \u201cfeels extremely unfair\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>One Red Kite school in Leeds was judged \u2018needs attention\u2019 for achievement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Inspectors acknowledged that many pupils joined part-way through schooling and the school supported them to catch up. But pupils \u201cachieve less well than could be expected\u201d in tests and exams.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Sheriff said the local area has \u201cgenerations of \u2026 compound disadvantage and school non-attendance\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cLast year just over 21 families lost a parent \u2026 It\u2019s just profoundly different.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cHow on earth can you use a national average against a population that\u2019s clearly in no way average? It\u2019s just statistic nonsense.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He warned that schools in similar areas risk slipping automatically into \u2018needs attention\u2019, while staff \u201cserving in these schools brilliantly are being underserved by a draconian and basically out-of-touch inspection.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Context must be reflected<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Two E-ACT schools are also among those rated \u2018needs attention\u2019 for achievement \u2013 E-ACT Nechells Academy, a primary in Birmingham, and City Heights E-ACT Academy in Tulse Hill, south London.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Both sit in areas of \u201cwell above average\u201d deprivation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At City Heights, 24 per cent of pupils receive SEN support, almost 6 per cent have an EHCP, and 61 per cent are eligible for free school meals (FSM).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At Nechells, SEN support is above average at (18 per cent), while FSM is 71 per cent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>CEO Tom Campbell said he welcomed Ofsted\u2019s focus on attainment and progress, \u201cbut national averages don\u2019t always reflect the context of many of our academies\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cSchools with high proportions of disadvantaged pupils, pupils with SEND, or high mobility can see headline figures affected by factors beyond the control of teaching and leadership,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He pointed to Nechells, which was praised by inspectors for improving outcomes for disadvantaged pupils, and phonics and multiplication. But several pupils joined in year 5, leaving too little time to \u201cget them fully up to speed\u201d for SATs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cAs a result, the school was graded \u2018needs attention\u2019 for achievement.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Campbell said he hoped this \u201cteething issue\u201d can be \u201cironed out, so judgments can fully reflect both attainment and progress in context.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Oliver: Inspectors are looking at context<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>One audience member raised similar concerns to Ofsted chief inspector Sir Martyn Oliver, during a Q&amp;A at BETT UK last month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWe work within deprivation, and people come to us with very low reading ages,\u201d he said. \u201cThe work we do with them is extraordinary, and the progress that they make is excellent\u201d. Yet the school is \u201cjudged against\u201d other schools including local grammars.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Oliver responded that he was \u201cwatching very carefully\u201d but \u201ccan already see that there are schools with low achievement getting beyond \u2018expected\u2019, \u2018strong\u2019 and \u2018exceptional\u2019 grades\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cI can tell that my inspectors are taking the context into account,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He said removal of headline grades means the system can show weakness in achievement while recognising excellence elsewhere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But Wolverhampton headteacher Philip Salisbury fears many parents will still judge schools closely on achievement and warned the system risks \u201csetting schools up to be either \u2026 inclusive or academic\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He also worries that schools could be deterred from admitting pupils who could dent results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Salisbury leads a primary where more than 55 per cent of pupils are eligible for free school meals. Around 80 per cent speak English as an additional language.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cIf you are comparing across national averages, a school like us is always going to struggle,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cAchievement becomes the weakest-looking area, even when the provision could be strong.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Education consultant Steve Wren said he also has \u201csignificant concerns\u201d that the achievement toolkit \u201cis biased against\u201d schools working within more difficult contexts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cIt is self-evidently more challenging for schools with low prior attainment to have exam outcomes in line with national averages.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Inclusion tsar welcomes raising outcomes<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>But not all leaders have been critical. Wodensborough Ormiston Academy, whose trust is led by government inclusion tsar Tom Rees, has also been rated \u2018needs attention\u2019 for achievement, while achieving \u2018expected standard\u2019 in all other areas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Disadvantage and SEND levels at the secondary are \u201cwell above average\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Its report stated pupils\u2019 outcomes in exams at the end of KS4 \u201cremain below the national average\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Work to improve this, including for pupils facing barriers to learning, \u201cis beginning to show some positive improvements\u201d, but \u201ctoo many pupils still do not achieve as well as they should\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Rees said: \u201cWe are proud of the improvement at Wodensborough in recent years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWe welcome the greater emphasis this new inspection framework places on inclusion, alongside a continued focus on raising outcomes.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Averages \u2018just one part of picture\u2019<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>An Ofsted spokesperson said: \u201cPupil achievement is at the heart of our report card because outcomes matter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cIt is vital that every child is provided with the tools they need to thrive, no matter their local context. To be truly inclusive means setting high standards for all children.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Performance in national tests and exams, and how this compares to national averages in the IDSR, \u201cis just one part of the rich picture of achievement in a school\u201d, they added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cInspectors use a range of data, including national averages for disadvantaged pupils, to understand achievement better. In forming grading decisions, they discuss each school&#8217;s context in detail with school leaders.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Some leaders have suggested that the use of averages means half of schools would not be able to meet the expected standard. But Ofsted has said that won\u2019t be the case.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For each achievement measure, schools are placed in one of three bandings depending on where they sit on a national distribution range. Performance near the average range is banded \u201cclose to average\u201d, while others will be \u201cabove\u201d or \u201cbelow\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ofsted said inspectors \u201cnever look at a single measure for a single year in isolation\u201d, and instead look at data over multiple years and measures to \u201cidentify consistent and comprehensive patterns\u201d and smooth out year-on-year variations.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8216;How on earth can you use a national average against a population that\u2019s clearly in no way average?&#8217;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":314902,"featured_media":241627,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[25],"post-theme":[2378],"class_list":["post-241719","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-ofsted","post-theme-ofsted"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 4.9.6.2 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Ofsted\u2019s use of the national average when grading schools on achievement could be &#039;extremely unfair&#039; to those serving disadvantaged communities, leaders warned\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"max-image-preview:large\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Lydia Chantler-Hicks\"\/>\n\t<meta name=\"google-site-verification\" 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